Q1 earnings preview (9 May)

The key difference is that Amazon only delivers branded drugs and does not touch compounded drugs, peptides, first consultations or the Labs data loop, so HIMS's moat is unaffected. (2) Deutsche Bank cut its target from $28 to $25 and kept its Hold rating. Coverage is now 15 analysts, with an average target of $28-31.86 and 5 Buys and 10 Holds. (3) The options market is pricing in a 14.8% move on earnings: the $26 at-the-money straddle costs $3.89, implying a range of $22.36-30.14. (4) Zacks Earnings ESP is +35.58%, which together with a Zacks Rank of #3 points to a high historical probability of a beat. EPS beat expectations by 250% last quarter. Consensus EPS is now $0.03-0.04 (down 80% year on year), so the bar for a beat is very low. (5) FINRA short interest data is released on the same day, 11 May. The previous reading was 37.85% of the float. If short interest falls and earnings beat, that would be a potential short-squeeze catalyst. Watchlist for 11 May: subscriber numbers, the conversion rate to branded GLP-1s, Labs user data (possibly disclosed for the first time), peptide revenue guidance and the direction of the FINRA short interest data.