SpaceX

Falcon 9 and Starship launch, the Starlink satellite network including Starlink Mobile, and the Starshield government business.

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Moat

Among the deepest physical and regulatory moats we track. The open questions are Musk's personal control and one large AI customer.

Physical assets & network	Very strong	Reusable rockets and the Starlink constellation: SpaceX carried 90% of global mass to orbit in Q3.
Regulation & licences	Strong	Scarce spectrum: the FCC approved its purchase of Tristar's AWS-3 licences and waived ground buildout for satellites, though the big carriers are fighting further releases.
Owner-operator	Strong, double-edged	Musk sets the pace and the capital plan, and is also the main political risk as the largest individual donor in the 2026 midterms.
Trust & brand	Double-edged	Governments rely on it (at least $6.78 billion of federal contracts this year by 1 Oct), yet the EU and Ukraine are looking for alternatives because Musk controls the switch.
Proprietary data flywheel	Limited	The moat is physical and regulatory, not data. AI revenue now leans on one compute customer worth 34.5% of revenue.

As of 28 Oct 2026. How we grade moats