SpaceX merger hopes, OpenAI moves into robots, ARK reiterates its target, Grok arrives in cars, FSD expands in Europe, record US EV sales in May
SpaceX valuation soars to about $2.1 trillion after listing as Tesla-SpaceX merger…
After last Friday's IPO, SpaceX's market value climbed further to about $2.1 trillion. SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC that merging the two companies 'could make Musk's life easier', which the market read as a trial balloon. Prediction markets: Polymarket puts the odds of a merger at about 38% and Kalshi at about 24% (with more than $560,000 wagered).
Logic
The two companies are already closely tied through the TERAFAB chip fab, AI infrastructure and energy storage, and Tesla itself holds a stake in SpaceX.
Risk
The merger narrative lifts sentiment, but it also amplifies worries about a discount, on the view that Musk treats Tesla as a donor of capital and technology. And there is no official confirmation of any kind.
OpenAI formally sets up a robotics division, giving Optimus another heavyweight rival
Sam Altman posted on X to recruit 'AI engineers working on robotics and world models', confirming OpenAI's move into physical robots.
Implication
Optimus is the core of the 'third river' narrative in the current valuation (in January Tesla said humanoid robots could be on sale by the end of next year). A rival with top-tier software AI capabilities entering the field will erode Optimus's scarcity premium.
Short term
OpenAI lacks hardware and mass-production capability. Tesla can reuse its FSD neural networks and has a manufacturing system, so its moat is still on the hardware side.
ARK reiterates its $2,600 target and has added to its position several times in 2026
Cathie Wood's ARK has bought TSLA several times this year. The model's core assumption is that by 2029 Robotaxi will account for nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value, far more than the car business. ARK cites data showing FSD is about 5 times safer than human drivers and about 16 times safer than the average vehicle. It also assumes the probability of a failed Robotaxi launch within 5 years is 'negligible'.
Context
The most aggressive bullish anchor right now. Together with GLJ's Sell ($24.86), it marks the two extremes of the market.
'Hey Grok' comes to the car: xAI integration moves from narrative to product
Tesla's 2026.20 software update includes a native 'Hey Grok' voice assistant, encryption of dashcam clips, parental controls and more.
Significance
In the 'three rivers converging' framework (FSD/Robotaxi, xAI/Grok and Optimus), Grok integration had so far stayed at the hint stage. Now it has shipped as a usable feature, the first hard evidence of software synergy.
Belgium approves supervised FSD as the European footprint keeps growing
After the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia and Denmark, Belgium is the latest country to give the green light (local testing must still be passed before it is pushed to users).
Significance
Regulatory mutual recognition is advancing country by country, validating FSD's path to commercialisation overseas. But it is still a slow, country-by-country grind.
US EV sales hit a record in May as combustion-engine car sales plunge 39%
High oil prices and bigger manufacturer incentives pushed US EV sales to an all-time high, while sales of combustion-engine models collapsed 39% over the same period.
Significance
An industry-wide demand tailwind for Tesla, although with the federal purchase subsidy gone, manufacturers are now funding the incentives out of their own pockets.
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.