ARK adds to its stake, Dutch HW3 class action, RDW rebuts Sweden, FSD v14 lands in Australia and New Zealand
Tesla on 20 Jun: bullish and bearish signals intertwine. After Musk's $110.5 billion option exercise and the negative FSD news from Europe, ARK bought the dip, adding about $21.9 million of TSLA, a broadly positive fund-flow signal.
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But the Dutch HW3 class action has grown to about 7,000 people and won the backing of law firm Kennedy Van der Laan, striking directly at the hidden discount in the narrative that HW3 cars get a free upgrade to Robotaxi. Counter-evidence: Dutch regulator RDW has said publicly that Tesla's safety data were independently verified and that it approved FSD in April. That points to a clear split among regulators going into the EU TCMV meeting on 30 Jun, and the outcome of FSD's European approval is undecided. On the software side, FSD v14.3.3 (2026.16.6) has been rolling out in Australia and New Zealand since 19 Jun, among the first right-hand-drive markets in the world to get v14. It is limited to HW4 and is still supervised L2.
Key evidence
- On 18 Jun ARK bought about 44,000 TSLA shares (about $21.9 million) and $52 million of SNOW, and sold out of about $99 million of ROKU
- Timing: it bought the pullback after Musk's $110.5 billion option exercise and the negative European regulatory news on FSD
- When SpaceX listed last week, ARK trimmed TSLA to buy SpaceX. This week it bought back, a rotation within Musk's group of companies.
- Participants in the Dutch HW3 class action have risen to nearly 7,000
- Law firm Kennedy Van der Laan has stepped in to prepare formal legal action
- Core claim: the FSD that Tesla promised simply cannot be delivered on HW3 hardware
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- Unlike the regulatory pressure from Sweden and the senators, this is an escalation at the level of consumer litigation
- Dutch vehicle regulator RDW has said publicly that Tesla's safety has been independently verified
- RDW approved FSD in April and supports an EU-wide rollout
- Set against Sweden's TRV recommending rejection, this shows a split among regulators
- FSD v14.3.3 (software 2026.16.6) has been rolling out to Australia and New Zealand since 19 Jun
- HW4 vehicles only. Among the first right-hand-drive markets in the world to get v14.
- Smart Summon, FSD and Robotaxi now share a unified model
- Closed at $400.49 on 18 Jun (about -8% to -10% YTD). US markets were closed on 19 Jun for the Juneteenth holiday.
Catalysts to watch
- EU TCMV meeting on 30 Jun: the outcome of FSD's European approval is undecided, and regulators are split
- Q2 earnings on 22 Jul: the next test
- The pace of formal legal action in the Dutch HW3 class action
- Progress on rolling out FSD v14 to more right-hand-drive markets (the UK, India, Japan)
- Whether ARK keeps buying TSLA on dips
Risks
- If the Dutch HW3 class action succeeds, HW3 cars will need paid hardware swaps to reach unsupervised level, exposing the hidden discount in the narrative of a free upgrade to Robotaxi
- Tail risk from litigation in Europe is building (the Dutch consumer lawsuit, Swedish regulators, pressure from senators)
- If the 30 Jun TCMV meeting rejects FSD's European approval, it would be a major negative for the software narrative
- FSD v14 is still supervised L2, not driverless, so it will take time for the Robotaxi valuation to be realised
- Shareholder dilution after Musk's $110.5 billion exercise, and how the market reads insider attitudes
Sources (4)
- ARK Invest notice of holdings changes, 18 Jun
- Kennedy Van der Laan law firm and reports on the Dutch HW3 owners' class action
- Public statement by Dutch vehicle regulator RDW
- Tesla software 2026.16.6 (supervised FSD v14.3.3) rollout notice, 19 Jun
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.