Regulatory relief, Tesla's own Q2 consensus of 406,000 deliveries, more hiring in Berlin
Three signals stack up. First, NHTSA has formally closed its probe into power steering on 376,000 vehicles, which an over-the-air (OTA) software recall resolved. That ends a federal investigation and is a rare, clear-cut positive in a week of regulatory bad news.
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Together with the loosening of FMVSS rules on 25 Jun, it adds to a run of signals that the Trump administration is easing off Tesla's autonomous driving as a whole. Second, Tesla has published its own analyst consensus for Q2 2026: deliveries of 406,000 (+5.7% YoY, +12% QoQ). That is below the third-party estimates of 418,000 to 420,000 from Barclays, Wolfe and Goldman Sachs, and it confirms the theme of stalled growth in the car business. Energy storage reached 13.8 GWh (+36% QoQ, a jump from 8.8 GWh in Q1). That supports the view that Megapack and storage are the real growth engine, and the narrative keeps shifting from cars to energy and autonomous driving. Third, the Berlin plant has confirmed it will hire about 1,000 more workers to expand output. The company is voting with real money on a recovery in European demand, which fits several observers' view that Europe drove a Q2 delivery beat.
Key evidence
- 27 Jun: NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation formally closed its engineering analysis into power steering failures on 2023 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles (376,000 units). It said Tesla's earlier OTA software recall had markedly reduced complaints (Reuters/NHTSA).
- 27 Jun: Tesla's own Q2 2026 consensus has deliveries of 406,024 (17 analysts), +5.7% YoY and +12% QoQ. Energy storage is 13.8 GWh, +36% YoY, a jump QoQ from 8.8 GWh in Q1 (Electrek/Not a Tesla App).
- Third-party estimates against Tesla's own: Barclays, Wolfe and Goldman Sachs at 418,000 to 420,000, versus the official consensus of 406,000. The company's own figure is below sell-side expectations.
- The energy business's QoQ jump of +36% is far ahead of +12% for vehicles, echoing two big orders: NatPower's 25GWh and the Sunrun VPP.
- Tesla confirmed that its Berlin plant will hire about 1,000 more workers to expand output, citing a strong rebound in European sales and demand after a weak 2025 (Electrek/Reuters).
- Price: closed at about $379.19 on 26 Jun (+1.08%), down about 16% YTD. US markets are closed for the weekend.
Catalysts to watch
- 2 Jul: actual Q2 deliveries, the hard test (official consensus about 406,000)
- 7 Jul: senators' deadline (an earlier regulatory negative)
- 22 Jul: Q2 results. Gross margin will test whether the Berlin expansion can turn into sustainable demand.
Risks
- The recovery in European demand has been driven largely by inventory clearance and promotions, and it is not yet clear whether the expansion will translate into sustainable demand.
- Stalled growth in the car business is confirmed at +5.7% YoY, and the long-running theme of a near-flat full year keeps weighing on the valuation.
- The official consensus of 406,000 is below the sell side's 418,000 to 420,000. If actual deliveries on 2 Jul come in under 406,000, analysts are likely to cut their estimates.
- Regulatory easing is only a directional positive with limited significance. It does not change legal risks such as the Katy fatality lawsuit.
Sources (3)
- Reuters/NHTSA: closure of probe into steering on 376,000 vehicles
- Electrek/Not a Tesla App: Tesla publishes Q2 consensus
- Electrek/Reuters: Giga Berlin to hire 1,000 more
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.