Shares jump 8.46% in a day to $411.84, FSD V14 Lite goes to HW3, big banks raise Q2 delivery forecasts, 30 Jun EU TCMV meeting is not a vote day

It is further proof that TSLA's price is set entirely by the AI and deliveries narrative. Last week's run of regulatory negatives (the dual NTSB and NHTSA investigations, the fatal Katy crash, Lyft excluding vision-only systems) was wiped out by a one-day sentiment reversal, with risk appetite as a tailwind. FSD V14 Lite cuts both ways. It keeps a promise made to owners of older cars to deliver before the end of Q2, and it takes some of the heat out of the Dutch class action by about 7,000 HW3 claimants. But Lite is a stripped-down version that explicitly stops short of unsupervised driving. That confirms from the other side that HW3 cannot run the full v14, and plaintiffs may use it as an argument. The big banks are split on Q2 deliveries. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas lifted his estimate sharply from 373,000 to 413,000, Barclays is at about 418,000, Cantor is at 397,400, below consensus, and Tesla's own IR-compiled consensus (22 firms) is 406,000 vehicles. Morgan Stanley's single upgrade of 40,000 vehicles is unusually large and is still driven by inventory clearance and promotions, so the quality of gross margin will have to wait for the 22 Jul results. Grok 4.5 has entered internal testing at SpaceX and Tesla, and Musk says it may beat Claude Opus. It is built on a V9 base model with 1.5 trillion parameters plus Cursor coding data. But all the evaluations are internal, xAI has not published data, and it adds nothing to TSLA's cash flow (xAI is not in Tesla's financial statements). Treat it as noise. Reality check: the EU TCMV meeting on 30 Jun is not a voting day. It is a 50-minute discussion of an Article 39 exemption, and an EU-wide ruling is expected in October 2026. The 30 Jun hard catalyst that had been priced in is in fact empty, and the catalyst has moved back to October. The next hard checkpoints are the actual Q2 deliveries on 2 Jul and the Q2 results on 22 Jul.