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TSLA

Phone forensics turn the Katy case around; Japan hits a record in June

Sources (4)

Phone forensics in the fatal Katy crash confirm that the driver deliberately sped and overrode FSD, and he has been charged with manslaughter. That weakens the core factual basis of the FSD product-defect litigation (the negative is blunted, not removed).

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In Japan, June registrations reached a record 3,997, up 183% year on year, taking the first-half total past 10,000. That adds evidence from Asia to the Europe-driven story behind Q2 deliveries of 480,126.

Key evidence

  • Harris County formally charged the driver, Michael Butler (44), with manslaughter on 1 Jul
  • Phone forensics: before the crash he searched Google for 'FSD too timid' and 'not aggressive enough'
  • At the moment of the crash the accelerator had been pushed to 73mph (about 117km/h): a deliberate human override
  • The forensics back the public rebuttal by Tesla AI VP Elluswamy on 22 Jun (the driver was 100% actively overriding)
  • Responsibility shifts from the FSD system back to human speeding, with criminal liability resting on the driver personally
  • The separate NHTSA and NTSB investigations have not been dropped, and the civil lawsuit continues
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  • Japan: 3,997 registrations in June, +183% YoY, the best month on record
  • The first-half total of 12,191 is already past 10,000; at this pace 2026 could exceed 24,000 (more than double last year)
  • Model Y tops the charts in New Zealand; demand in Asia and Oceania is strengthening in step
  • Price: closed at about $389 on 2 Jul (down 7.5%, the worst day in nearly 11 months), about $393-394 late on 3 Jul; markets closed on 4 Jul for Independence Day

Catalysts to watch

  • 22 Jul Q2 results: gross margin is make-or-break (promotional clearance versus real demand)
  • Late July to early August: Optimus 3 production starts
  • Next steps in the NHTSA and NTSB federal investigations
  • Direction of the civil design-defect lawsuit against Tesla

Risks

  • Both federal investigations, by NHTSA and NTSB, remain open
  • The civil lawsuit still alleges a Tesla design defect
  • Strong Q2 delivery growth may reflect promotions and inventory clearance rather than real demand
  • A gross margin miss would disprove the demand-recovery narrative

Sources 4

  1. Harris County DA, 1 Jul charging document
  2. Tesla AI VP Ashok Elluswamy, 22 Jun public statement
  3. Tesla Japan, June registration data
  4. Tesla Q2 2026 global delivery report (480,126 vehicles)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.