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Direct-to-cell reaches 11 million users in emerging markets, Europe's big four carriers team up in response…

Sources (4)

Direct-to-cell has gone from concept to large-scale real use: 11 million unique users across VEON's three countries have connected at least once (but free of charge, not paying).

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At the same time Europe's four big carriers (DT, Orange, Telefónica, Vodafone) have signed a letter of intent to bid jointly for 2GHz spectrum, forming a domestic counter-alliance, which narrows Starlink's path to European spectrum. Australia's Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation law has taken effect, and the communications minister has publicly admitted that only Starlink can deliver it at present, so the policy mandate brings wholesale demand. The Norway subsidiary's 50% revenue growth in 2025 shows that penetration in mature markets has not peaked. Q3 results tonight after the close: watch subscribers, ARPU, enterprise and government, capex and the Starship V3 timetable.

Key evidence

  • VEON announcement, 19 Oct: more than 11 million unique users across Ukraine (Kyivstar, launched 24 Nov 2025), Kazakhstan (Beeline, 29 Sep) and Bangladesh (Banglalink, 9 Oct) have connected at least once. More than 40 million people within the coverage area could potentially be reached.
  • A warning on the basis: this counts people who have connected at least once, not paying subscribers. In Ukraine the service is free for about 15.5 million 4G users, and in Kazakhstan it was free at the start too.
  • This is a different basis from the roughly 7.4 million monthly active devices of 17 Oct, but the direction is the same: direct-to-cell has gone from concept to large-scale real use. Monetisation goes through the carrier wholesale model, and the paid conversion rate awaits disclosure by SPCX.
  • European big-four alliance: Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone signed a letter of intent on 19 Oct to consider bidding jointly for European direct-to-cell spectrum. The four would handle only the ground network and scheduling, and would look for a satellite constellation partner yet to be chosen.
  • Background: in May the EU proposed reserving part of the 2GHz band for local companies, which SpaceX publicly opposed. The three big US carriers formed a similar spectrum alliance earlier this year. Following Project Bromo on 16 Oct, Europe has added another domestic-governance barrier.
  • Warning: the four do not build satellites themselves and have no usable constellation in the short term. Whether they become a real threat depends on whom they pick as satellite partner and when it can be deployed.
Show 4 more
  • Australia's Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation law is in force: it requires Telstra, Optus and TPG to provide basic outdoor voice and text coverage nationwide. Mobile signals currently cover less than a third of Australia's land area.
  • Communications minister Wells publicly admitted that only Starlink can currently provide direct-to-cell technology. Telstra already uses Starlink for satellite text messaging. Specific standards and the timetable are not yet set (ABC, 19 Oct).
  • Starlink Norway 2025 annual report: revenue of about NOK 831 million (about NOK 553 million in 2024, up 50%), operating profit of NOK 45.7 million and net profit of NOK 12.8 million. About NOK 800 million came from network services, with business customers the largest share.
  • Warning: the subsidiary's profit is affected by intra-group transfer pricing, so margins are of limited reference value and revenue growth is more meaningful. Norway is high-income and sparsely populated, and growth of 50% shows that penetration in a mature market has not peaked.

Catalysts to watch

  • Q3 results tonight after the US close (morning of 21 Oct Singapore time): subscribers, consumer ARPU, the enterprise and government business, capex, and the Starship and V3 timetable
  • When SPCX discloses the paid conversion rate for direct-to-cell (the gap between 11 million users who connected once for free and paying subscribers)
  • Whom the European big-four alliance picks as satellite partner, and the deployment timetable
  • Specific standards and timetable for Australia's Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation, and wholesale contracts signed with the three carriers

Risks

  • The 11 million unique users are on a free-use basis and the paid conversion rate is unknown. If conversion is low, the direct-to-cell story is discounted
  • The path to European spectrum keeps narrowing: the EU's local reservation of 2GHz, the big-four alliance and Project Bromo all stack up
  • If the European big four land a usable satellite partner (such as OneWeb or IRIS²), it would be real competition
  • The subsidiary's margins are distorted by transfer pricing, so Norway's single-country margin cannot be extrapolated to the whole

Sources 4

  1. VEON press release, 19 Oct / StockTitan
  2. The Verge, Deutsche Telekom website
  3. ABC, 19 Oct (Australian communications minister Wells)
  4. E24 / Starlink Norway annual report

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.