Competitive landscape and the three-way squeeze before Q1 results

Analyst consensus

Average target price

$29.5-31.7

Consensus rating

Hold

Coverage

12-13 analysts

Highest target

JPMorgan, Overweight, $35

Latest update

BofA, Neutral, $32 (latest raise)

Note

Most target prices still exclude peptide revenue

Competitive landscape

Amazon_One_Medical

Launching a GLP-1 programme. BofA estimates it could cannibalise 31% of HIMS's GLP-1 revenue, but Citi points out that Amazon's $29 remote consultation is limited to renewals and excludes new prescriptions, so the threat is limited.

Ro_price_war

Ro has halved the price of its weight-loss subscription, which after the first month costs just $74 a month (drugs included). HIMS charges a membership fee of $149 a month (drug costs extra). Ro's strategy is to win customers while HIMS is in transition from compounded to branded drugs. This puts pressure on HIMS's new GLP-1 subscriptions in the short term, but Ro lacks the advantages of a multi-category platform (skin, mental health, hormones, Labs and more), so a pure price war is not sustainable.

Internal transition

The shift from high-margin compounded drugs to branded drugs creates a revenue gap of about $65 million (a one-off hit)

Price action

HIMS fell as much as 3% in pre-market trading after the news broke

Q1 earnings preview

Earnings date

11 May 2026

EPS estimate

$0.06 (down 70% year on year)

Key metrics to watch

• Net subscriber additions
• Penetration across categories
• Early contribution from the Novo and Lilly partnerships

Reason for profit decline

A one-off hit from the shift from compounded to branded drugs, not a deterioration in the business

Revenue estimate

$621 million (up 6% year on year)