Insight on Q1 earnings day
HIMS reports Q1 results tonight after the close. Read-across from peers: GoodRx's Q1 revenue fell 4.4% year on year but beat expectations by 4.9%, and the shares rose 9.9% after the results. At Tandem Diabetes, Q1 revenue rose 5.5% year on year and beat expectations by 3.2%, but the shares fell 16.3% (guidance fell short of expectations).
Read more
The healthcare technology sector rose an average of 6.1% over the past month. Positioning going in: HIMS is up 49.6% over the past month, far above the sector average, so the market has already priced in a lot. It closed on Friday at $28.27 (+10.2%) and extended its gains after hours to $29.06 (+2.8%). The current share price is well above the analyst consensus target of $26.04 (a 12% premium). Risk: a beat that is not big enough could trigger 'buy the rumour, sell the news'. Consensus expectations: revenue of $617-620 million (+5% year on year), GAAP EPS of $0.03-0.04 (-80% year on year, because of the shift from compounded to branded drugs) and an EPS beat rate of 0% over the past year. Tonight's watchlist: subscriber numbers (only +2% quarter on quarter in Q4), the share of revenue from the branded-drug transition (Novo and Lilly contribution), whether Labs user data is disclosed for the first time, whether peptide revenue starts to show, the direction of full-year guidance, and FINRA short interest data (previous reading 37.85%).
Key metrics
- 1-month price return (%)
49.6
- Analyst target
26.04
- Consensus EPS (GAAP)
0.03-0.04
- Q1 consensus revenue
617-620M
- Current price
29.06
- Peer GoodRx beat (%)
4.9
- Peer GoodRx post-earnings move (%)
9.9
- Peer Tandem beat (%)
3.2
- Peer Tandem post-earnings move (%)
-16.3
- Premium to target (%)
12
- Sector 1-month average (%)
6.1
- Last short interest
37.85%
Watchlist
- Subscriber numbers (only +2% quarter on quarter in Q4)
- Share of revenue from the branded-drug transition
- First disclosure of Labs user data
- Whether peptide revenue shows up
- Direction of full-year guidance
- FINRA short interest data
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.