Stray Dog
EN中文
EN中文

Prices are Hyperliquid perpetual futures: contracts that track each stock and trade 24/7. They are not exchange prices and can differ from them, most of all while US markets are closed. Change is over 24 hours. For information only.

  • TSLA—
  • PLTR—
  • HIMS—
  • SPCX—
  • SOFI—
  • BTC—
…Loading prices
TSLA

Tesla's Robotaxi fleet trails Waymo's by a factor of 9, Cybercab rehearses passenger pick-ups in several cities, mixed signals from the Dutch RDW

Sources (3)

The picture is unchanged: ahead on technology, far behind on scale. Cybercab moving from staging to passenger hand-over rehearsals in several cities is an incremental positive for the operational ramp. European regulators are hedging: RDW publicly vouched for Tesla's data while raising the validation bar for L2, so FSD's European rollout is still constrained by procedure.

Key evidence

  • BofA, citing Texas DMV registration data from 16 Jun: Tesla has only 69 Robotaxis statewide, against 620 for Waymo and 317 for AVRide, with Nuro and Zoox at the bottom
  • Waymo grew from 577 vehicles on 14 Jun to 620. The multiple moved from 13.7 times to 9 times only because Tesla's base is low, and the gap has widened rather than narrowed.
  • BofA analysts see Tesla's low-cost strategy (service vehicles under $30K each, plus cheap fares) as a deliberate play
  • Videos leaked on X on 21 Jun show Cybercabs in San Francisco (Twin Peaks), Dallas, Austin and Arizona running the core passenger loop: pull over, wait, drive off
  • The Dutch RDW used data to publicly rebut the accusation of misleading safety data, stressing that it has seamlessly verified Tesla's data in real European traffic
  • In the same move, RDW tightened the screws on Tesla as its fleet ramps up, raising the reliability validation requirements for L2 assistance systems
  • Closed at $400.49 on 18 Jun, about -11% YTD. Among 34 analysts, the median target is $475 and the mean about $420.

Catalysts to watch

  • Dutch TCMV meeting on 30 Jun: a procedural milestone for FSD's rollout in Europe
  • Q2 2026 earnings on 22 Jul
  • Cybercab volume-production target: end of 2026

Risks

  • The Robotaxi fleet trails Waymo's by a factor of 9 and the gap is still widening. Lagging on scale may hurt network effects and the unit-economics model.
  • European regulators are raising the validation bar for L2. Approval is not unconditional, and FSD's European rollout is constrained by procedure.
  • Cybercab is still at the rehearsal stage, not in scaled operation, so there is execution risk to the end-2026 volume-production target
  • Sweden and ETSC keep up the pressure on European regulators

Sources 3

  1. BofA report citing Texas DMV registration data, 16 Jun
  2. Videos leaked on X, 21 Jun: footage of Cybercab rehearsals in several cities
  3. Public statement by the Dutch RDW

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.