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TSLA

Burry goes short, Deutsche Bank raises its Q2 delivery forecast, Optimus 3 gets a date

Sources (7)

Burry has formally shorted TSLA at $416.22, in a basket that also holds NVDA, CAT, AMAT and SOXX on the view that AI and semiconductors are in a bubble. Deutsche Bank has raised its Q2 delivery forecast to about 416,000 vehicles, yet another third party backing a beat, driven by Europe.

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Musk has confirmed that Optimus 3 will be unveiled in late July or early August. The official delivery figure on 2 Jul is the next hard test.

Key evidence

  • Burry disclosed a short in TSLA at $416.22 on 30 Jun, entering near the high after the 29 Jun surge and building the position ahead of the Q2 delivery report
  • Same short basket: NVDA, CAT ($1,060.98), AMAT and SOXX. The logic: AI and semiconductors are in a bubble
  • Burry treats TSLA as part of the AI bubble rather than valuing it as a carmaker, which puts him in the extreme bear camp alongside GLJ (Sell, $24.86) and a Seeking Alpha DCF of $100.79
  • A counterweight from Gary Black: he expects a Q2 delivery beat but still does not want to own the stock
  • Deutsche Bank on 30 Jun raised its Q2 delivery estimate to about 416,000, roughly 10,000 above Tesla's company-compiled consensus of 406,024
  • The big banks all expect a beat: Morgan Stanley 413,000, Barclays 418,000, Wolfe and Goldman Sachs 420,000, Deutsche Bank 416,000
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  • Dissenting estimates: Cantor 397,414 (below consensus), Zacks 402,456, Bloomberg consensus about 396,500
  • All the big banks agree that the upside comes from Europe while US sales are falling. Doubts over inventory clearance and promotions have not gone away
  • Musk confirmed Optimus 3 will be unveiled in late July or early August, with low-volume production starting this summer
  • On 30 Jun the stock traded in a $405-410 range (high $409.75, low $405.45); down about 7% YTD
  • US stocks closed out the first half with the Nasdaq's best quarter since 2020

Catalysts to watch

  • Thursday 2 Jul: official Q2 delivery figures
  • 22 Jul: Q2 results
  • Late July or early August: Optimus 3 launch

Risks

  • Burry's short is a new negative signal and weighs on sentiment at current prices
  • Being grouped with AI bubble names could trigger a switch in valuation method (from carmaker to AI concept stock)
  • Falling US sales and doubts over inventory clearance and promotions remain unresolved
  • Optimus 3 is still a launch-event sentiment catalyst, not earnings. The production ramp and unit economics are unproven
  • The bears' extreme targets range from $24.86 to $100.79. If Q2 deliveries fail to beat, the sell-off would accelerate

Sources 7

  1. Michael Burry, 30 Jun disclosure of a TSLA short at $416.22
  2. Deutsche Bank, 30 Jun: Q2 delivery forecast raised to about 416,000
  3. Morgan Stanley 413,000 / Barclays 418,000 / Wolfe / Goldman 420,000
  4. Cantor 397,414 / Zacks 402,456 / Bloomberg consensus about 396,500
  5. GLJ Sell $24.86 / Seeking Alpha DCF $100.79
  6. Gary Black, Q2 delivery beat forecast
  7. Musk, confirmation of Optimus 3 timing

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.