TSLASunday, 9 Aug 2026
Jefferies cuts FY26 EBIT by 37%, Terafab's cash drain quantified, Robotaxi paid miles fall 36% QoQ in Q2
The current price of $328.58 rests entirely on long-term AI optionality (Terafab, Robotaxi and Optimus), and the disconnect from the car-selling fundamentals is unchanged. Jefferies has for the first time slashed its 2026 EBIT forecast.
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The first phase of Terafab, at $16.8 billion, is equal to 38.6% of Tesla's cash and short-term investments and 2.9 times a quarter's capex, and the funding split has not been disclosed. Robotaxi paid miles fell 36% QoQ in Q2, shrinking even as the service expands into new cities. All three put pressure on the valuation anchor at once.
Key evidence
- Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois cut his TSLA price target from $400 to $350 (keeping Hold), implying upside of only 6.5% (against Friday's $328.58)
- Jefferies cut its full-year 2026 EBIT forecast by 37% in one go, to $3.9 billion, citing thoroughly disappointing operating leverage in Q2. It is the first sell-side analyst to cut 2026 earnings expectations so drastically.
- The first phase of Terafab, at $16.8 billion, is roughly 38.6% of Tesla's cash and short-term investments at the end of June and 2.9 times Q2 capex. The share each of Tesla and SpaceX is putting in has still not been officially disclosed.
- Wedbush's Dan Ives and Baird's Ben Kallo have both publicly called for disclosure of who is funding Terafab and how the debt is arranged
- Retail investors were net buyers of about $372 million of TSLA over the past 5 trading days (more than 3 times the previous week), helping to lift the stock 5.6% on the week to close at $328.58, ahead of the Nasdaq's +5.2%
- TechCrunch reported on 8 Aug that Terafab will be powered by a natural gas power plant (not Tesla solar), which contradicts its clean energy label
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- Data from the Q2 results deck: Robotaxi paid miles fell 36% in Q2 from Q1, while Tesla kept expanding into new cities over the same period
- Robotaxi cumulative paid miles are about 2.44 million, with 22 federal crash reports. A third-party estimate puts the crash rate at 5.7 to 13.6 (95% confidence interval).
- Management's version: more than 380,000 cumulative miles of fully unsupervised operation across six cities in two states, with zero major accidents claimed
- The fundamental anchor is unchanged: Q2 automotive gross margin of 16.3%, operating margin of 1.4%, negative FCF
- Secondary: California DMV records show Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit with safety drivers, and San Diego may be the next stop
- Secondary: UK deliveries fell 9% YoY in July, and pressure from low-priced Chinese brands continues
- Secondary: the third wave of FSD v14.3.7 (2026.21.5) went to about 1,210 AI4 vehicles, and HW3 cars in South Korea received v14 Lite
Catalysts to watch
- Disclosure of Terafab's funding split and who carries the debt (still pending, and a potential trigger for a repricing once it lands)
- More sell-side analysts following Jefferies in slashing EBIT expectations (Morgan Stanley and UBS have already cut, and the consensus could move down faster)
- Whether Q3 Robotaxi paid mileage stops falling and recovers (a test of the core bull case)
- Progress on Robotaxi launches in San Diego or other new cities
- A broader rollout of FSD v14 (incremental rather than a flashpoint)
Risks
- Terafab as a funding black hole: $16.8 billion equals 38.6% of cash and short-term investments, and if Tesla carries the bulk of it, the balance sheet will be badly eroded
- Robotaxi is expanding into new cities while volumes shrink, confirming that expansion does not equal monetisation and loosening a pillar of the autonomous driving valuation
- The car-selling fundamentals keep deteriorating: Q2 automotive gross margin of 16.3%, operating margin of 1.4%, negative FCF
- Retail enthusiasm is propping up the stock while sell-side expectations are being slashed, a divergence. If retail money stops flowing in, the support for the narrative comes loose.
- If regulators or the media amplify the Robotaxi crash-rate range of 5.7 to 13.6, it could reverse the safety narrative
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- UK deliveries fell 9% in July, and pressure from low-priced Chinese brands continues worldwide
- Terafab's gas power supply contradicts its clean energy label, damaging the ESG narrative
Sources (7)
- Jefferies research note (Philippe Houchois, price target $350, FY26 EBIT $3.9 billion)
- Tesla Q2 results deck (Robotaxi paid mileage data)
- TechCrunch (8 Aug 2026, report on Terafab's gas power supply)
- Wedbush (public comments by Dan Ives), Baird (public comments by Ben Kallo)
- California DMV records, San Diego Union-Tribune
- Third-party crash rate statistics (95% confidence interval of 5.7 to 13.6)
- Retail fund flow data (net purchases of $372 million over the past 5 trading days)
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.