HIMSSaturday, 15 Aug 2026
Daily: BofA raises target from $30 to $32; single-source rumour of a Novo reconciliation revives the short-squeeze narrative
The sell-side consensus has edged up to $32.43 but still sits on the fence (4 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell). This leg up rests on a single-source Novo rumour and the short-squeeze narrative, not on new results. The core debate is unchanged:
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fast revenue growth against a 64% gross margin (down 12 percentage points year on year), a swing to losses and FTC legal provisions hitting the income statement in real money. The next real proof point is still whether Q4 delivers the profit jump. At about 60x forward P/E and more than 50% below the year's high of $70.43, risk/reward leans cautious.
Key evidence
- BofA analyst Allen Lutz raised the HIMS price target from $30 to $32 before Tuesday's open and kept a Neutral rating (Ticker Report, citing Benzinga). BofA's path: $37 to $30 after the FTC lawsuit (6-10 Aug), now $32 after the results. More optimistic than before the report, but still neutral
- MarketBeat's sell-side consensus target rose from about $30.65 before the results to $32.43. Ratings split 4 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, so the overall call is still 'Hold'
- A fund manager's commentary on StockTwits on 14 Aug said there were reports that Novo Nordisk plans to sell weight-loss drugs through the HIMS telehealth platform, which could mend the two companies' earlier public dispute. The fund manager said a 60% rise this week would come as no surprise, arguing the valuation could re-rate from about 12x NTM EBITDA to about 20x
- So far this Novo report has only this one source, with no first-hand Bloomberg or Reuters reporting and no official announcement from either company. It follows the same pattern as the single-source (TipRanks) rumour of an expanded Novo deal on 9-10 Jun
- On the same day Pharmacy Times was recycling 'Novo ends its partnership with HIMS' (old news from June 2025, re-indexed). Two narratives pointing in opposite directions mean a lot of noise
- The branded GLP-1 distribution partnership between HIMS and Novo has existed since March 2026 and is listed on the HIMS website, so there is no first-hand evidence for the supposed 'mending of a public dispute'
Catalysts to watch
- Whether Novo or HIMS officially confirms a new partnership or a repaired relationship (awaiting a first-hand announcement)
- Q4 results: whether the profit jump comes through (the key proof point)
- Whether more sell-side rating or target increases follow BofA's $32
- Short-squeeze momentum: if the single-source rumour draws in speculative money, the stock could spike in the short term
Risks
- The Novo reconciliation rumour has a single source, the same pattern as TipRanks in June, so the risk of it being debunked is high
- A 64% gross margin (down 12pp year on year), a swing to losses and FTC legal provisions weighing on the income statement leave earnings-quality concerns unresolved
- At about 60x forward P/E, the valuation is badly out of line with fundamentals
- The opposite narrative on the same day (Pharmacy Times recycling the end of the Novo partnership) adds noise
- Sell-side consensus is still 'Hold' (11 Hold against 4 Buy), so the bulls lack institutional backing
Sources (5)
- Ticker Report, citing Benzinga (BofA's Allen Lutz, $30 to $32)
- MarketBeat (consensus target of $32.43, ratings split)
- StockTwits, 14 Aug: fund manager commentary (Novo reconciliation rumour and 60% short-squeeze narrative)
- Pharmacy Times (opposite narrative: old news of the Novo partnership ending, re-indexed)
- HIMS website (Novo GLP-1 distribution partnership listed since March 2026)
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.