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TSLA

Tesla daily: Roadster demo trailed; TD Cowen at $460; Terafab breaks ground; CPO programme launches

Sources (6)

TSLA has bounced about 10% in 2 weeks (to about $346-349 on 14 Aug), but the move is driven entirely by narrative and analysts piling in, while the fundamentals (Q2 gross margin 16.3%, operating margin 1.4%, negative FCF) have not delivered.

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A 'flying' Roadster, the Terafab groundbreaking and TD Cowen's $460 target add up to sentiment-driven pricing, more evidence that the stock has come loose from the car business. The CPO programme is one of the few structural positives (it widens the FSD subscription base), but it is not a turning point.

Key evidence

  • The second-generation Roadster is due to be demonstrated this month at SpaceX's McGregor test site, using cold-gas thrusters to make the car briefly 'fly' (The Information, citing 3 people familiar with the plan, and Electrek). The news pushed TSLA up 2-3% intraday on Friday to about $345-346
  • TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli kept Buy on 14 Aug with a $460 target (implying 33% upside), focusing on Tesla's positioning in the AV market; that is above UBS's $442. But sell-side consensus is still mostly Hold and targets are far apart (GLJ $24.86 against a ceiling of $460-600)
  • Construction of the Terafab chip plant in Grimes County formally began this week (drone footage and the first on-site photo, 14 Aug); phase 1 costs $16.8 billion. The key downgrade: Musk cut the target from 'tens of thousands of wafers a month' to 'maybe a few thousand a month, mainly to try out ideas'. Tesla gets only 25% of the compute
  • Tesla has formally launched a certified pre-owned (CPO) programme in the US and Puerto Rico: reconditioned and inspected used cars with a 1-year warranty. The cheapest Model Y and Model S cost about $25,000 and the cheapest Model 3 about $20,000. Used-car owners can subscribe to FSD, which widens the base for high-margin software subscriptions
  • Price markers: TSLA closed at $339.96 on 13 Aug and rose about 3.8% on 14 Aug to $346-349. That is up 10% over 2 weeks but still down 24% this year

Catalysts to watch

  • Roadster demo at SpaceX's McGregor test site this month (a hovering or 'flying' display)
  • Construction progress on Terafab phase 1 (physical milestones)
  • Roll-out of the CPO programme and growth in the FSD subscription base
  • The trend of rising analyst targets (TD Cowen $460, UBS $442)

Risks

  • The rebound rests entirely on narrative and analysts piling in, with nothing delivered on fundamentals; if sentiment turns, the pullback will be large
  • The 'flying supercar' Roadster show adds nothing to fundamentals and only reinforces sentiment-driven pricing
  • Terafab's capacity target has dropped from 'tens of thousands a month' to 'a few thousand a month', and Tesla gets only 25% of the compute. The plant costs double-digit billions, yet Tesla's anchor as a standalone carmaker grows weaker
  • Q2 automotive gross margin has collapsed to 16.3%, operating margin is 1.4% and FCF is negative
  • Sell-side consensus is split, with GLJ at $24.86 against a $600 ceiling. Bulls raising targets is not the same as consensus turning bullish

Sources 6

  1. The Information (Roadster demo exclusive)
  2. Electrek (further demo details)
  3. TD Cowen note, 14 Aug (Itay Michaeli, Buy, $460)
  4. TeslaNorth, 14 Aug (Terafab drone footage and on-site photo)
  5. Wikipedia entry on Terafab (disclosure of the reduced capacity target)
  6. Tesla's official CPO programme announcement

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.