Taiwan Megapack order, and Canada pauses Shanghai-built Model 3 orders as quota accounts conflict
On the energy side, Tesla signed a deal on 8 Oct with Taiwan's Apollo Power for 260 Megapack 2XL units (about 1 GWh), a clear bet on AI data centres scrambling for power. Apollo Power's exchange filing says the contract amount is confidential; the figure of about $265 million appears only in a social media post.
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It is the third hard order after the Arizona PPA and the California VPP. Q3 storage deployments of 13.7 GWh, up 9.6% year on year, were the second highest quarter on record, but 14% below the company-compiled consensus of 15.9 GWh. The China export leg has cracked again, though: on 12 Oct Canada paused orders for the Shanghai-built Model 3 Premium. Tesla says the quota is used up, but Electrek found about 67% of the 49,000 slots for the year (33,069) still unused, so the official line and the first-hand data diverge again.
Key evidence
- Taiwan's Apollo Power signed on 8 Oct for 260 Megapack 2XL units, about 1 GWh, for enterprise-scale storage and grid projects. The motive for the order is plainly AI data centres scrambling for power (power, not compute, is the bottleneck). Apollo Power's exchange filing says the contract amount is confidential; the figure of about $265 million appears only in a social media post
- Storage is the highest-margin business in the company (Q2 20.4% against 16.3% for automotive), with three hard orders in 9 months: the 509 MWp Arizona PPA, the Australian Megapack deal and Taiwan
- Following up on 13 Oct: Q3 storage deployments of 13.7 GWh, up 9.6% year on year, were the second highest quarter on record, but 14% below the company-compiled consensus of 15.9 GWh
- Tesla Canada's website has paused orders for the Shanghai-built Model 3 Premium since 12 Oct. Tesla says high demand has used up the quota for China-built EV imports, and expects to resume once the government re-issues quota in Mar 2027
- Electrek found that 33,069 of Canada's 49,000 quota slots for the year are still unused (about 67% remaining), and that the current six-month period opened with 33,397 slots. That does not square with the claim that the quota is used up
- In Canada's under-$35,000 customs category, only 7 EVs came in from China in September and none so far in October (all brands, not Tesla alone). The cheap Shanghai-built Model 3 used to drive volume, and that channel has now largely stopped
- On the CPCA measure, domestic sales in China over the first 9 months were 381,088 vehicles, down 11.9% year on year
Catalysts to watch
- Q3 results on 21 Oct: watch the China ASP and export drag, and storage gross margin
- Deployment ramp and revenue recognition timing for the Taiwan Megapack 2XL order
- March 2027 re-issue of quota by the Canadian government: the official date Tesla gives for resuming orders
Risks
- Even at the roughly $265 million cited on social media, the order is small against total quarterly revenue, and a single 260-unit order is not a volume inflection
- Signing a contract is not delivery or recognised revenue, and the deployment ramp takes time. The energy side is a gradual positive, not a valuation-level one
- The Canadian pause is a tariff and quota policy constraint rather than a demand collapse, and it is a small single market
- The 33,069 remaining-quota figure comes from Electrek (the remainder of the 49,000 slots for the year), and Tesla has not explained why it paused. The channel and export side leans negative but is not valuation-level
Sources (4)
- Sawyer Merritt, 13 Oct (Tesla Energy Taiwan and Apollo Power, signed 8 Oct)
- Electrek, 12-13 Oct (Canada pauses Shanghai-built Model 3; check of the 67% remaining quota)
- Tesla Canada website
- CPCA data on domestic sales in China for the first 9 months
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.