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TSLA

Robotaxi remote takeover crashes, Texas fleet smaller than Waymo's, fatal crash with FSD engaged

Sources (3)

Three independent pieces of first-hand regulatory and registration data hit three pillars of Tesla's self-driving narrative at once. The remote takeover mechanism has itself become a source of crashes (all 5 ended in a collision). Tesla's actual fleet in Texas, at 739 vehicles, still trails Waymo's 1,185. And Tesla's own data confirms a fatal crash with FSD engaged. The 21 Oct results are the key window.

Key evidence

  • NHTSA's September Standing General Order data adds two remote takeover crashes from August. In Dallas, a Model Y stuck between a cement truck and an SUV scraped the SUV at 0.4mph under the remote operator's control. In Austin, a Model Y travelling straight hit a rubbish bin at 1mph with the remote operator in control. Neither had passengers aboard, both caused property damage only, and both are formally coded as Remote (Commercial/Test). (Electrek, 15 Oct)
  • Cumulative data: all 5 remote takeover crashes ended in a collision, and 3 are formally coded as remote operation. Tesla has filed 36 Robotaxi crash reports in total, against 22 in July.
  • Texas vehicle registration data and independent fleet tracking: 319 Cybercabs are actually registered (the official line says only 300+). Tesla has 739 autonomous vehicles in Texas in total, against Waymo's 1,185. (tech-insider, 15 Oct)
  • This cross-checks the 8x growth narrative published on 11-14 Oct: the official 8x growth holds up, but in absolute terms Waymo's fleet is still nearly 1.6 times the size.
  • Fatal crash on Route 55 in New Jersey: a Tesla crossed the central reservation and killed Delco school board member Phillip Eastman. Tesla's data confirms driver-assist was engaged at the time (some of the data was redacted). (Electrek, 15 Oct)

Catalysts to watch

  • Tesla's Q3 results after the close on 21 Oct, US Eastern time (5:30am on 22 Oct in Singapore): whether it discloses the ratio of remote operators to vehicles, sets aside litigation-related provisions or updates its FSD reporting basis
  • Further monthly data under NHTSA's Standing General Order (cumulative remote takeover crashes)
  • Progress of the appeal against the California ruling on misleading marketing (Tesla lost in Dec 2024 and is still appealing)
  • Regulatory knock-on effects of FSD being renamed Assisted Driving in Europe

Risks

  • The remote takeover crashes all happened at walking pace (0.4mph to 9mph), not at fatal speeds, so the market may dismiss them as a non-event
  • Waymo's lead in scale is not a lead in profitability, and Tesla's challenger narrative may still counter with cost and vertical integration
  • Some of the data from the fatal crash in New Jersey was redacted, so the chain of causation remains open to dispute until the lawsuit is resolved
  • If the 21 Oct results disclose strong data on Robotaxi expansion into new cities, they could suppress the negatives in the short term

Sources 3

  1. Electrek, 15 Oct: NHTSA Standing General Order disclosure of remote takeover crashes
  2. tech-insider, 15 Oct: Texas vehicle registration data and comparison with Waymo
  3. Electrek, 15 Oct: fatal crash on Route 55 in New Jersey, with Tesla data confirming

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.