SPCXWednesday, 28 Oct 2026
Termination terms in Anthropic's $120.5 billion compute contract, Amazon-Globalstar approval, Starlink across United's whole fleet
Anthropic's S-1 spells out SpaceX compute contracts worth up to $120.5 billion, but from 2027 they can be terminated on just 90 days' notice, which lowers the certainty of the $63 billion order backlog. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar, moving direct-to-cell towards a duopoly of Starlink and Amazon.
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United Airlines is extending Starlink from 65% of its fleet to the whole fleet, which shows that demand for in-flight Wi-Fi is being pulled by passengers.
Key evidence
- Anthropic S-1 (SEC, 26 Oct) discloses that between May and October this year Anthropic signed several NVIDIA GPU compute contracts (including amendments) with SpaceXAI, a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary. They total up to $120.5 billion and run to 2029. Once all the compute is delivered (expected December 2026), payments will be about $3.1 billion a month, or about $9.3 billion a quarter. The capacity ramp-up period is charged at separate rates. Key terms: the non-cancellable periods end in January and March 2027 respectively, after which either side may terminate on 90 days' written notice.
- Inference (not official): 'Customer B' in the 10-Q appears only in the Superintelligence segment, at about $5 billion in Q3, and is very likely Anthropic. At $3.1 billion a month, this one customer would be worth about $9.3 billion in Q1 2027, roughly a quarter of the $33-37 billion of revenue that management has guided to verbally.
- Via Satellite, 27 Oct: the FCC has approved Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar, giving Amazon L-band and S-band mobile satellite spectrum and a formal entry into direct-to-cell. Amazon has applied for a direct-to-cell constellation of up to 5,105 satellites, and closing is still scheduled for 2027. The commission's order says explicitly that the deal lets 'well-funded operators' offer stronger direct-to-cell services.
- On Starlink's side, 15,000 direct-to-cell satellites were approved on 7 Oct. Globalstar is currently Apple's satellite communications partner, so what Apple does once Globalstar belongs to Amazon is worth watching.
- United Airlines CEO Kirby (Cheeky Pint podcast, 27 Oct): Starlink is installed on 661 aircraft, with about 3 more fitted each day. It covers 48% of flights, rising to 50% next week, and September alone saw more than 5.4 million passenger uses. The original plan covered 65% of the fleet. It is now the whole fleet by the end of 2027, and Los Angeles will become the first all-Starlink hub in the first half of 2027. Kirby called it the biggest competitive advantage in the industry (though only a temporary one) and said Delta is making a mistake by not choosing Starlink.
- For reference, American Airlines will fit its whole mainline fleet of 1,000+ aircraft and easyJet all of its 300+. The pace at which signed contracts turn into installed aircraft still has room to rise.
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- Ookla, 27 Oct: Entel, Starlink's partner operator in Chile and Peru, disclosed that 10% of the new customers who switched network in Q2 2026 came for Starlink's direct-to-cell service. In September the share of daily active direct-to-cell phones in Chile was about 2 times that in the US. In Peru, 47% of fixed-location direct-to-cell use took place outside the coverage areas of the four operators. Ecuador's state-owned CNT has also gone live.
- Launches: on 27 Oct the Starlink 15-16 mission from Vandenberg put 27 satellites into orbit and the booster was recovered successfully (Spaceflight Now/AIAA). Ship 42, the ship for Starship's 15th test flight, completed a single-engine static fire (NASASpaceflight), and the target is still November.
Catalysts to watch
- After January and March 2027 Anthropic can terminate on 90 days' notice: watch for contract renewal or amendment announcements
- Progress towards the 2027 closing for Amazon's Project Kuiper direct-to-cell constellation
- United's Los Angeles hub becoming a full Starlink node in the first half of 2027
- Starship's 15th test flight, targeted for November
- Signing progress on Anthropic's new compute contracts with AMD (over $20 billion) and Nscale (up to about $44.6 billion), a sign of supplier diversification
Risks
- A serious mismatch in contract terms: SpaceX's GPU finance leases run for 5-5.25 years, while its biggest customer, Anthropic, can exit on 90 days' notice from 2027. The $63 billion order backlog is less certain than its face value suggests.
- Anthropic is diversifying its suppliers (AMD, Nscale), so SpaceX's lock-in of its largest customer is weakening.
- Direct-to-cell is moving from Starlink dominance to a duopoly, which dilutes long-term pricing power.
- Kirby's own words on in-flight Starlink: 'the biggest competitive advantage in the industry, but only a temporary one'.
Sources (6)
- Anthropic S-1 (SEC, 26 Oct)
- Via Satellite, 27 Oct
- Cheeky Pint podcast (Kirby, 27 Oct)
- Ookla, 27 Oct
- Spaceflight Now/AIAA, 27 Oct
- NASASpaceflight
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.