TSLAWednesday, 28 Oct 2026
FSD safety report, Texas Robotaxi registrations, South Korean seizures of FSD unlocking devices
The numbers in Tesla's quarterly FSD safety report keep improving, but they are still self-reported. Texas Robotaxi registrations have topped 1,000, with Cybercabs outnumbering Model Ys for the first time, yet growth comes almost entirely from one city, Austin.
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In South Korea only a fifth of Teslas can legally use FSD, and police have opened cases against 80 people for illegally unlocking it. That shows willingness to pay is real, but regulators are blocking the core models.
Key evidence
- FSD (Supervised) quarterly safety report (updated 27 Oct): rolling 12-month North American data show an average of one major collision (airbag-deployment basis) for every 6,006,200 miles with FSD engaged, against about 5.3 million miles in the February report and about 5.1 million last November. Comparison groups: Tesla vehicles driven manually with active safety, about 2.03 million miles, and the US average (Tesla's estimate), about 660,000 miles. Minor collisions occur once every 1.76 million miles (US average about 225,000). The sample window covers about 9.48 billion FSD miles and 1,579 major collisions, and cumulative FSD mileage exceeds 16.7 billion miles. Counting basis: any crash in which FSD was engaged at some point in the 5 seconds before impact counts as an FSD crash, whoever was at fault.
- Texas Department of Motor Vehicles Robotaxi registrations (27 Oct): 1,051 vehicles in total, of which 544 are Cybercabs (52%, with 81 added on Tuesday alone) and 507 are Model Ys. On 24 Oct the total was 927 (420 Cybercabs), so Cybercabs rose by 124 in three days, while the Model Y count has stayed at 507 since 22 Oct. For the week to 18 Oct (Robotaxi Tracker's compilation of Tesla's weekly safety reports), Austin miles driven without a safety monitor were 438,000 (up 30% week on week), 79% of the network total of about 558,000. Dallas logged 95,000, Houston 7,288, and Tampa, Orlando and Miami about 6,000 each. Waymo's US-wide driverless mileage in Q2 was 3.9 million miles a week, about 7 times Tesla's total.
- South Korean illegal FSD unlocking case (Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency, 27 Oct): police have opened cases against 80 people for violating the Motor Vehicle Management Act and seized 21 illegal unlocking devices (from Europe, from China and home-made). The maximum penalty is 2 years in prison or a fine of KRW 20 million. Background: only US-built Model S, Model X and Cybertruck can legally use FSD in South Korea, because the Korea-US free trade agreement exempts US-built cars from Korean safety certification. China-built Model 3/Y have not passed Korean standards. As of August, only 47,458 of the 229,311 Teslas in South Korea (20.7%) could legally use FSD.
Catalysts to watch
- The official November date for Cybercab's arrival in Dallas: watch for any change in the share of miles driven outside Austin
- Houston's service area has grown to 254 square miles, but weekly mileage is only 7,288: watch whether it moves from a zone on the map to real operations
- Whether Shanghai-built Model 3/Y can win local safety certification in South Korea, which sets the ceiling on FSD penetration there
- The next update of the Q4 FSD safety report: whether miles per major collision keep rising
Risks
- The FSD safety data is Tesla's own reporting, not independently audited. The mix of roads differs (FSD skews towards highways and good road conditions), and the US average is an estimate, not a like-for-like comparison.
- The FSD safety report does nothing to reduce the case-by-case risk from several recent fatal FSD accidents.
- Texas Robotaxi growth is concentrated in one city, Austin (79% of miles), so it does not prove the software can be replicated across cities. Musk says Austin 'was never real competition', but he is comparing Tesla's best week with Waymo's Q2 average.
- South Korean owners are willing to risk criminal liability to pay for unlocking, which shows demand is real. But the core models are blocked by regulators, and no breakthrough is in sight in the short term.
Sources (7)
- Tesla website FSD safety report page (27 Oct)
- Teslanorth
- Drive Tesla Canada, 27 Oct
- Electrek, 27 Oct
- Texas Department of Motor Vehicles registration list
- Robotaxi Tracker
- Korea JoongAng Daily, 27 Oct (citing Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency and Carisyou Data Lab)
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.