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TSLA

Tesla daily: new Morgan Stanley analyst highlights 55% FSD take rate; ARK predicts merger this year; two-door Cybercab tested in Dallas

Sources (5)

The focus of sell-side consensus keeps shifting from 'selling cars' to 'proving Robotaxi can scale'. Morgan Stanley's new analyst, Percoco, has taken over coverage and singled out the 55% FSD take rate as the 'healthiest signal' in the Q2 results.

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That keeps the Robotaxi option alive, but the bank explicitly wants Tesla to produce hard evidence that it is 'scalable'. The merger narrative, on-road Cybercab testing and state-level regulatory tailwinds continue to prop up the valuation as a long-dated AI option. Fundamentals (Q2 gross margin 16.3%, operating margin 1.4%, negative FCF) remain detached from a forward P/E above 300x.

Key evidence

  • Morgan Stanley star analyst Adam Jonas has moved to the auto sector; new analyst Percoco takes over TSLA coverage, keeping Equalweight and a $415 price target
  • FSD take rate on new North American deliveries reached 55%, far above Morgan Stanley's earlier 25-30% expectation, and was called the 'healthiest signal' in the Q2 results
  • Morgan Stanley estimates Robotaxi is a $1 trillion market by 2040, with about 2.5 million units worldwide by 2035, but regulation, safety and heavy investment slow the path to profit
  • ARK Invest analyst Winton predicts a TSLA-SpaceX merger will be announced this year (2026), while conceding that Tesla's China business is an 'uncomfortable piece of the puzzle' for SpaceX
  • Musk publicly denied plans to split off the China business, calling the reports 'absurd fake news', and instead praised China as 'great'
  • Business Insider video: Tesla is road-testing a two-door Cybercab in Dallas. Waymo, meanwhile, is expanding production in Arizona of the Ojai, built specifically as a robotaxi
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  • Florida Governor DeSantis publicly backed Robotaxi as something that 'could obviously be very beneficial'; Florida has some of the loosest autonomous-driving rules in the US
  • TSLA closed at $330.88 on 10 Aug (up 0.7%) and was about $331.75 pre-market on 12 Aug; forward P/E above 300x
  • 28 analysts: 10 Buy, 15 Hold, 3 Sell; consensus price target $380-402
  • Q2 fundamentals: gross margin 16.3%, operating margin 1.4%, FCF negative

Catalysts to watch

  • Hard evidence that Robotaxi is 'scalable' (a specific Morgan Stanley demand)
  • Cybercab volume production target still anchored at end-2026
  • Announcement of a TSLA-SpaceX merger (ARK predicts this year; no official confirmation)
  • Robotaxi expansion to cities in more lightly regulated states (Florida's backing)

Risks

  • Weaker gross margin, rising R&D and capex, and growing cash needs (flagged by Morgan Stanley)
  • 'Cumulative FSD miles are not the same as a commercially viable business' (an explicit Morgan Stanley warning)
  • A forward P/E above 300x is completely detached from fundamentals and rests on long-dated AI optionality
  • Every bit of heat in the merger narrative weakens TSLA's valuation anchor as a standalone carmaker (echoing Jefferies' proxy-stock warning)
  • Q2 gross margin 16.3%, operating margin 1.4%, FCF negative

Sources 5

  1. Morgan Stanley note, 11 Aug (Percoco's new coverage)
  2. Public comments by ARK Invest analyst Winton, 11 Aug
  3. Musk's public response, 11 Aug
  4. Business Insider video of Cybercab road tests in Dallas, 11-12 Aug
  5. Public endorsement by Florida Governor DeSantis, 11-12 Aug

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.