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TSLA

Texas Robotaxi registrations surge; delivery pace for 500 Semis; FSD enters a European car-sharing fleet for the first time

Sources (4)

Three supply-side signals on the same day. The Texas DMV logged 79 new Robotaxi Model Ys in a single day, taking the total to 270 and countering the bears' story of a 'shrinking driverless fleet'. Einride's CEO pinned down that only about 75 (15%) of its 500-truck Semi order will be delivered in 2026, which confirms a slow ramp.

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And through Dutch car-sharing operator MyWheels, FSD has for the first time opened a third-party, pay-per-use way to try it, bypassing the 'buy the car first' barrier to widen its reach in Europe. All three are incremental positives, but they are channel and supply signals. The scale of truly driverless operations and the capacity turning point still need to be confirmed after the Cybercab launch on 3 Sep.

Key evidence

  • Texas DMV records for 28 Aug: Tesla registered 79 dedicated Robotaxi Model Ys in a single day, bringing the Texas total to 270. In mid-June only 42 were registered in Texas, so the count has jumped from 42 to 270 in two months.
  • The registrations came right after Tesla extended operating hours (6am to 10pm, 7 days a week) and claimed its 'unsupervised fleet is bigger and smarter'
  • A key distinction: registered is not the same as unsupervised on-road operation. The 270 is the total of plated vehicles, a pool being built up for the Cybercab launch on 3 Sep and later expansion to more cities.
  • By comparison, Waymo operates more than 550 vehicles in Texas, across several cities. Tesla is still in a single state, Texas.
  • Einride CEO Roozbeh Charli (Benzinga, Electrek, 28 Aug): of 500 Tesla Semis, only about 75 will be delivered in 2026 and the rest in 2027, with all 500 delivered by the end of 2027. Phased deployment starts in September.
  • 75 of 500 means only about 15% in the first year. The Semi ramp at the Nevada plant is slow, bearing out Tesla's earlier move to lower expectations for it.
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  • Set the 24 Sep unveiling of the Nevada Semi plant and its design capacity of 50,000 a year against the 75 trucks its largest single customer gets in year one: design capacity is not current output
  • Spread over 24 months, the pace works out at about 20 a month, which is unchanged. This is not a capacity turning point.
  • On 27 Aug Dutch car-sharing operator MyWheels launched its first public shared Tesla with FSD (Supervised). Users can rent it by the trip to try FSD without owning a Tesla.
  • It is the first time FSD has been put into a third-party sharing fleet as a pay-per-use entry point, bypassing the 'buy the car first' barrier to widen its reach in Europe
  • This is a single-car pilot by one Dutch operator, so the scale is tiny. The Netherlands is also the front line of a collective claim by nearly 7,000 people over HW3.

Catalysts to watch

  • Cybercab launch on 3 Sep: will the pool of 270 registered cars turn into truly driverless operations at scale
  • Unveiling of the Nevada Semi plant on 24 Sep: watch the actual ramp against design capacity of 50,000 a year
  • Einride begins phased deployment of its first Semis from September
  • Progress on country-by-country FSD approval in Europe, and whether the MyWheels pilot expands

Risks

  • The 270 registrations do not mean that many cars are running driverless commercial service at once. Driverless scale still needs to be verified after 3 Sep.
  • Delivering 15% of the Semi order in year one means the ramp really is slow, with a clear gap between design capacity and current output
  • The Dutch FSD pilot is tiny: an incremental signal, not volume
  • In the same Dutch market the HW3 collective claim is still going ahead, so the good and the bad coexist
  • Compared with Waymo's more than 550 vehicles in Texas across several cities, Tesla is still in one state

Sources 4

  1. Not a Tesla App, 28 Aug: Texas DMV Robotaxi Model Y registration records
  2. Benzinga, 28 Aug: Einride CEO Roozbeh Charli on the delivery schedule for 500 Semis
  3. Electrek, 28 Aug: pace of Einride Semi deliveries
  4. MyWheels Netherlands, 27 Aug: first shared Tesla with FSD (Supervised) goes live

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.