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TSLA

Optimus enters production; FSD v14.3.7 drives towards a train; Waymo hits back at vision-only

Sources (11)

Three cross-cutting Tesla signals. Optimus has formally entered production at Fremont, a hard supply-side milestone but not a volume turning point. FSD v14.3.7 failed at a level crossing again, the third such case this year, which adds to regulatory exposure. And Waymo used its Hot Chips 2026 keynote to challenge Tesla's vision-only approach head on, just a week before the Cybercab launch on 3 Sep.

Key evidence

  • On 27 Aug Motley Fool and TradingView confirmed that Optimus has formally entered production at the Fremont plant in California, using line space freed up by the Model S and X. Tesla's Fremont web page now lists three product lines: Model 3, Model Y and Optimus.
  • This follows the 46-day teardown of the Model S/X line for conversion to Optimus, and the Gen 3 design freeze and supply chain lock-in (JPMorgan site-visit notes). The first-generation line has a design ceiling of 1 million units a year, and once the master process works it will be copied to Giga Texas.
  • On the earnings call Musk himself said Optimus is the hardest product Tesla has ever had to mass-produce: everything is new and there is no existing supply chain. Volume sales will have to wait until 2027. Tesla is deliberately lowering expectations.
  • On 25 Aug auto journalist Lei Xing posted dashcam footage of FSD v14.3.7 approaching a signalled level crossing at 9 mph. The warning lights were flashing and the train horn was clearly audible, yet FSD only slowed down, did not stop and tried to cross. A hard manual brake kept the car off the tracks.
  • This is the third time this year Electrek has recorded FSD heading for a train or failing at a level crossing, and it happened on the latest AI4 build. The v14.3 release notes explicitly claimed better handling of unusual objects protruding into the lane, yet it still fails 7 point releases later.
  • NHTSA opened an investigation into FSD in October 2025 covering 58 incidents (including running red lights and driving into oncoming traffic). Senators Markey and Blumenthal have separately pressed for a dedicated probe into level-crossing failures.
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  • On 24 Aug Waymo chief scientist Srikanth Thirumalai used his Hot Chips 2026 keynote at Stanford to rebut the claim that cameras alone are enough: 'Cameras are incredible, but they aren’t enough'
  • Waymo said its training showed that cameras, lidar and radar working together give far better visibility than dropping any one sensor. It pointed to its custom 1,000 TOPS chip and 200 million fully driverless miles, and called Tesla's progress so far a 'false summit'.

Catalysts to watch

  • Cybercab launch on 3 Sep (the unsupervised Robotaxi uses the same vision-only FSD stack, so level-crossing failures weigh directly on the pace of state-by-state approvals)
  • Once the Optimus master process works at Fremont, copying it to Giga Texas as the high-volume plant (an incremental supply-side positive)
  • Timing of Optimus volume sales: Musk has said 2027

Risks

  • Optimus belongs to the narrative tier (80% of the company's future value) and has yet to show up in the fundamentals. Initial production is the start of a long ramp, not a volume turning point.
  • Repeated FSD failures at level crossings turn regulatory and litigation tail risk into the real thing and directly slow state-by-state approval of unsupervised Robotaxi
  • Waymo's challenge to vision-only puts the sensor debate back in the spotlight just as Tesla's vision-only fleet reaches the point of scaling commercial service, sharpening the clash of narratives
  • Waymo's 200 million miles and its redundancy of 13 cameras, 4 lidars and 6 radars are first-hand operating data. Tesla's vision-only approach has a structural edge on cost and manufacturability but lags far behind in truly driverless miles.

Sources 11

  1. Motley Fool (27 Aug, Optimus enters production at Fremont)
  2. TradingView (27 Aug, Optimus enters production at Fremont)
  3. Tesla website, Fremont page (Model 3, Model Y and Optimus product lines)
  4. JPMorgan Tesla site-visit notes (Optimus Gen 3 design freeze and supply chain lock-in)
  5. Tesla earnings call (Musk on how hard Optimus is to mass-produce, and 2027 timing)
  6. Lei Xing dashcam video (25 Aug, FSD v14.3.7 at a level crossing)
  7. Electrek (tracking of FSD train incidents, and v14.3 release notes)
  8. NHTSA (investigation into 58 FSD incidents, opened October 2025)
  9. Senators Markey and Blumenthal, statement pressing for action
  10. The Verge (24 Aug, Waymo Hot Chips keynote)
  11. Hot Chips 2026 conference, Stanford (Srikanth Thirumalai keynote)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.