India sets a monthly record in September and overtakes Mercedes for the first time to rank second in luxury EVs: the first real anchor for…
Tesla registered about 280 to 290 vehicles in India in September (all Model Y), up 138% on the month and 304% on the year, taking cumulative registrations past 1,017. In a single month it overtook Mercedes for the first time to become the second-largest luxury EV seller in India.
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China retail is falling, exports are squeezed by BYD, Europe is split by subsidies and the North American credit ends in Q4. Against those headwinds, India is one of the few regional markets with real growth. It supplies the first evidence from an emerging market, backed by registration numbers, for the direction of TAM expansion. Mildly positive, not valuation-level, and more symbolic than material in scale.
Key evidence
- India's Vahan retail registration data: Tesla registered about 280 to 290 vehicles in September (Model Y only across the range), up about 138% from about 117 in August and up about 304% from 69 in September last year (a fourfold rise).
- Cumulative registrations since Tesla entered India in Sep 2025 have passed 1,017.
- At about 290 in a single month, Tesla overtook Mercedes for the first time and moved up to second place in India's luxury electric passenger-car market.
- Total EV passenger-car registrations in India in September set a record of about 36,000 (up about 93% year on year). Tesla's share and absolute volume both rose within a fast-growing market.
- The growth did not come from price cuts (only 38 in June, then three consecutive jumps from July). It came from Shanghai-built Model Ys entering India and from a real roll-out of channels, with outlets expanded to Chennai and Noida in September.
- Set against about 486,000 global deliveries a quarter, roughly 290 a month is almost imperceptible in absolute terms. The symbolism matters more than the volume.
Catalysts to watch
- Whether monthly registrations in India keep growing (to test real demand against a festival-season pulse)
- Whether local production is set up in India (everything is imported at present, and Model Y prices are high under heavy tariffs)
- The pace of outlet expansion in India (after Chennai and Noida)
- Sales before and after Diwali
Risks
- At about 290 a month, the absolute volume is still small change and barely registers against global quarterly deliveries
- Everything is imported as complete vehicles. Under India's high import tariffs the Model Y is expensive, and sustained growth in volume will need local production or lower prices
- The monthly high partly reflects the festival season (ahead of Diwali) and a low base, and may be a one-off pulse rather than real demand
- Rolling out outlets in emerging markets carries a risk of a strong start followed by a fade (the first wave of purchases triggered by early channel openings)
Sources (3)
- Autocar Professional (3-4 Oct)
- India Vahan retail registration data
- CNBC TV18 (earlier commentary on India sales expectations)
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.