SpaceX Megapack related-party margin, Cybercab regulation, fleet and first crash, Cybertruck cancelled in Australia and New Zealand
Tesla's Q3 10-Q shows Megapack orders from SpaceX at a gross margin of about 22.6%, against a storage average of 33.1%. That makes related-party pricing a central issue for the merger review. NHTSA's FMVSS 108 lighting rule modernisation, which names the Cybercab, adds another link to the compliance chain for a vehicle with no steering wheel and no pedals.
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Austin Robotaxi hours have been extended to 1am, and the service area has expanded to the Circuit of the Americas. The Texas fleet is 858 vehicles (507 Model Y and 351 Cybercab), up 119 in two weeks, with the Cybercab adding only 32. The first Cybercab crash (at 5mph into a pothole, with a safety monitor onboard and no injury) has entered the federal Standing General Order (SGO) database. It is not counted in the safety report covering 3.1 million no-monitor miles. The Cybertruck has been cancelled for Australia and New Zealand, with deposits refunded.
Key evidence
- Q3 10-Q, Note 13 (Related Party Transactions): Megapack revenue from SpaceX was $221 million in Q3 against a cost of $171 million, a gross margin of about 22.6%. For the nine months, revenue was $626 million against a cost of $478 million, a margin of about 23.6%. Storage gross margin over the same period was 33.1%, so the related-party margin is about 10 percentage points lower. SpaceX accounted for 7.7% of Q3 storage revenue ($2.88 billion). At 30 Sep, the receivable from SpaceX was $729 million (of which $588 million was milestone billings and capacity reservations for undelivered Megapacks), and deferred revenue was $648 million (verified on SEC EDGAR).
- NHTSA's FMVSS No. 108 (Lamps) Modernization to Accommodate ADS Vehicles has entered Federal Register public inspection as document 2026-21794. The proposal removes the requirement that turn signals cancel automatically when the steering returns, and the requirement for a manual turn-signal switch. It names the Cybercab. It follows revisions to FMVSS 102, 103 and 104 (gear display, defrost), 110 (tyres) and 135 (brake pedal removal), which began in March. The rule is proposed, not final, and has a public comment period. The AQ26002 compliance review is ongoing (verified in the Federal Register).
- Austin Robotaxi: a 22 Oct app screenshot from owner David Moss shows last call at 1am (drop-off proximity only) and a service area expanded to the Circuit of the Americas, the F1 US Grand Prix venue. Hours have been extended in steps: 10pm in August, 11pm in early October, midnight from about 17 Oct and now 1am. On the Q3 call, AI vice president Ashok Elluswamy said hours would extend to 2am soon and to 24 hours by year end.
- Texas autonomous vehicle (AV) registry (via tesla-mag, as of 22 Oct): 858 vehicles in total, made up of 507 Model Y and 351 Cybercab. The previous reading was 739 (Cybercab 319). Cybercab added 32 in two weeks, with the Model Y driving the 119 increase. Against this, stated Cybercab capacity is more than 125,000 a year. Waymo's Texas count is 1,185.
- NHTSA's September SGO batch contains the first Cybercab crash. It happened in August in an Austin parking lot, at about 5mph into a water-filled pothole. Damage was limited to the chassis, a safety monitor was onboard, and there were no passengers and no injuries. The same batch has 7 Tesla incidents in Texas in total. Of these, 6 involved Model Y Robotaxis, all at under 3mph and with property damage only. This crash is not counted in the official report of 3.1 million miles with no safety monitor and zero injuries. The crash tally splits monitored and no-monitor miles.
- On 23 Oct, Electrek cited a Tesla email to Cybertruck reservation holders saying that the plan to produce the Cybertruck for Australia and New Zealand had been terminated. The A$150 deposits (collected since 2019) will be refunded within 30 days, and holders were offered one year of FSD on a Model 3 or Model Y as an incentive to switch. The Cybertruck is left-hand drive only, and in right-hand-drive markets (Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Japan) the certification cost does not justify demand.
Catalysts to watch
- Proxy and independent committee materials for the merger review: look for a disclosure that splits storage margin between third-party and related-party sales.
- Close of the FMVSS 108 public comment period and publication of the final rule.
- Austin Robotaxi hours extending to 2am and 24-hour operation by year end, as a check on FSD V15 delivery.
- Weekly Texas AV registry: Cybercab fleet growth rate, which needs to accelerate sharply to validate the claim of capacity above 125,000 a year.
- Future SGO batches: watch the safety data for no-monitor miles separately from monitored miles.
Risks
- Scrutiny of related-party Megapack pricing by the independent committee and minority shareholders during the merger review. Storage gross margin may need a line-item breakdown going forward.
- FMVSS 108 is proposed, not final, and the AQ26002 compliance review is still ongoing.
- Cybercab growth in the Texas registry (up 32 in two weeks) is far below the ramp implied by capacity of more than 125,000 a year.
- Headline risk from the first Cybercab crash: it was mild physically, but reporting may conflate monitored and no-monitor miles.
- The Cybertruck cancellation in right-hand-drive markets signals a contraction of the product line outside left-hand-drive markets and North America.
Sources 7
- Tesla Q3 2026 10-Q, Note 13 Related Party Transactions (SEC EDGAR)
- Federal Register document 2026-21794, FMVSS No. 108 Modernization
- David Moss X post, 22 Oct (Austin Robotaxi 1am screenshot)
- Q3 2026 earnings call, Ashok Elluswamy
- tesla-mag citing Texas AV registry, 22 Oct
- NHTSA September Standing General Order batch
- Electrek, 23 Oct: Tesla email to Cybertruck reservation holders in Australia and New Zealand
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.